Screening deployment OS for women's-health networks launching rapid HPV testing, routing results into same-visit referral and follow-up.
Organizations trying to expand cervical-cancer screening beyond well-equipped hospitals still depend on centralized labs, paper registers, and manual follow-up. Once a rapid lab-free HPV test exists, the bottleneck shifts from assay turnaround to operations: registering each test, capturing a trustworthy result, routing positives into referral, and proving follow-up happened across distributed sites.
Why now
- Bridge capital earmarked for IP, pilot manufacturing, and seed preparation suggests lab-free HPV testing is moving from science story to rollout reality, which is exactly when operators need deployment software.
- A platform that works without centralized labs or external power shifts screening into distributed sites where legacy LIS and paper workflows break down.
- PCR-quality molecular detection with a roughly 30-minute color-change result makes same-visit referral and counseling operationally possible for the first time in these environments.
- If the same platform is meant for home, clinic, and resource-limited settings, operators will need one control layer that standardizes quality and follow-up across very different site types.
Catalyst. Intu's financing and reported pilot-manufacturing push make lab-free HPV testing feel operationally imminent, while the 30-minute anywhere-result format creates urgency to build the workflow layer that preserves that speed in real-world programs.
The idea
Rapid HPV Screening Ops gives every decentralized screening site a lightweight workflow app and a supervisor dashboard. Staff register each cartridge, record the result, and launch the next protocol step such as patient counseling, referral booking, or follow-up outreach from one flow instead of paper logs and callbacks. Program leaders see stock levels, invalid-test rates, completion by site, positive-result queues, and referral closure across the network. The first version is explicitly a deployment and follow-up operating system, not a diagnostic interpretation product, which keeps the wedge measurable and operational. Over time it becomes the system of record for decentralized molecular screening programs across many disease categories.
What's different. Most screening software is built either for centralized laboratories or for patient engagement after the fact. This product is designed for the messy middle: decentralized molecular testing that still needs chain-of-custody, protocol compliance, and referral completion across many low-infrastructure sites. The moat compounds through site-level performance benchmarks, workflow templates tuned to rapid diagnostics, and integrations that make the platform the operational system of record around each screening episode.
| Beachhead | Women's-health screening networks operating 20 to 100 satellite, pharmacy, mobile, or community sites where HPV tests cannot reliably be shipped to a central lab and positive patients are often lost between screening and follow-up |
|---|---|
| Wedge | A decentralized HPV screening operations system that registers tests, captures results, enforces site protocols, and triggers same-day referral and follow-up workflows across low-infrastructure screening sites |
| Non-obvious insight | The first big software winner from lab-free molecular diagnostics may not be another diagnostic app or lab system. When PCR-quality HPV testing can happen anywhere in about 30 minutes, the new choke point becomes the field operating layer that turns a result into a completed referral and auditable program outcome. |
| Venture-scale path | Start with HPV screening deployments, then expand the same operating layer into other decentralized women's-health and infectious-disease molecular programs as LAB-TO-GO-like platforms spread from clinics into home and resource-limited settings. |
| Primary user | Directors of screening programs at women's-health clinic networks and NGO- or public-health-funded cervical-screening operators running distributed outreach sites. |
|---|---|
| Secondary user | Site supervisors, nurse leads, and referral coordinators inside the same screening programs. |
| Economic buyer | Director of screening programs, COO, or medical operations lead |
| First customer | A donor-funded or private women's-health screening network launching rapid HPV pilots across 20 or more mobile, pharmacy, or satellite sites and struggling to track result capture and referral completion outside a central lab workflow |
|---|---|
| Buying trigger | A new rapid-HPV pilot, grant-funded screening expansion, or leadership push to reduce lost-to-follow-up after positive cervical-cancer screens |
| Current alternative | Paper registers, spreadsheets, generic EHR notes, basic LIS exports, and manual phone or SMS follow-up run by site staff |
| Switching reason | The product preserves the speed and reach of lab-free testing without forcing the operator to build bespoke workflows for result capture, quality tracking, and referral management across each new site |
| Pricing hypothesis | Annual per-site SaaS fee plus usage-based pricing per completed screening episode, with premium modules for referral analytics and multi-program reporting |
Jobs to be done
| Job | Current alternative | Success metric |
|---|---|---|
| When we launch rapid HPV testing across distributed sites, help our program team capture every result and trigger the right next step, so positive patients do not disappear after screening. | Paper logs, spreadsheets, and manual nurse follow-up | Referral completion rate for positive screens within target time window |
| When we add new outreach sites that lack central-lab workflows, help our supervisors monitor stock, invalid tests, and protocol adherence, so we can scale screening quality without constant field firefighting. | Ad hoc WhatsApp updates, stock sheets, and retrospective QA reviews | Site activation speed plus reduction in invalid-test and lost-result rates |
flowchart LR Buyer[Screening program ops lead] --> Pain[Decentralized HPV tests break result and follow-up workflows] Pain --> Product[Rapid HPV Screening Ops] Product --> Outcome[More completed referrals fewer lost positives and scalable screening rollout]
- Signal · 5/5Three corroborating June 26 sources plus clear claims about pilot manufacturing, anywhere-use, and a 30-minute result make this a strong near-term deployment signal.
- Pain · 5/5Screening access and lost-to-follow-up are severe operational problems in decentralized women's-health programs, and the sources point directly at a tool built for low-infrastructure settings.
- Wedge · 5/5The beachhead, workflow, buyer, and switching event are explicit: operations software for distributed HPV screening programs adopting rapid tests.
- Defense · 4/5Defensibility can build through embedded workflows, site-performance data, and referral outcome benchmarks, though hardware vendors or large incumbents could eventually copy parts of the surface area.
- Scale · 4/5A strong HPV beachhead can expand into adjacent decentralized infectious-disease workflows as the underlying diagnostic platforms broaden beyond women's health.
- Rapid diagnostic manufacturers
- Screening NGOs and women's-health clinic operators
- Referral providers and local health-system partners
- Capturing results and enforcing workflows
- Tracking referral completion and quality metrics
- Integrating with test suppliers and local record systems
- Field workflow software and offline-capable mobile tooling
- Protocol templates for rapid screening programs
- Referral and site-performance dataset
- Turn rapid HPV testing into auditable same-visit workflows
- Reduce lost-to-follow-up after positive screens
- Standardize quality and referral operations across distributed sites
- High-touch implementation around one screening protocol
- Shared KPI reviews by site, cohort, and referral completion
- Expansion from one geography or program into adjacent diagnostics
- Direct sales to screening-program operators and clinic-network leaders
- Partnerships with diagnostic manufacturers and distributors
- Pilot deployments tied to grant or rollout expansions
- Women's-health screening clinic networks
- NGO- or public-health-funded cervical-screening programs
- Diagnostic distributors and implementation partners later
- Product and mobile engineering
- Implementation and field support
- Healthcare compliance and training
- Enterprise and programmatic sales
- Per-site software subscriptions
- Per completed screening episode fees
- Implementation and reporting modules
Market
| TAM | $0.6B Bottom-up estimate: 2024 world female population of 4.05B multiplied by the 30-49 female share from World Bank age-band indicators yields ~1.08B women; applying WHO's 70% screening target on a five-year cadence implies ~151M annualized screenings, and modeling ~$4 software spend per screening episode gives roughly $0.6B TAM. |
|---|---|
| SAM | $120.0M Estimated as roughly 20% of TAM, constrained to organized multi-site programs and networks where decentralized workflow pain is acute enough to justify a dedicated operating layer rather than basic reporting tools. |
| SOM | $3.0M Modeled as ~2.5% of SAM by year 3, equivalent to winning a few dozen meaningful programs or regional rollouts rather than broad market penetration. |
Executive takeaways
- The pain is real and immediate: once rapid HPV testing leaves the central lab, the operational choke point becomes result capture, referral closure, and quality control across dispersed sites.
- The market is not winner-take-all yet; buyers can patch together EHR, DHIS2, CommCare, or OEM tools, but none is purpose-built for decentralized HPV same-visit operations.
- The sharpest near-term wedge is not diagnostic interpretation but auditable workflow orchestration around same-day counseling, referral, and follow-up.
- The best early customers are organized screening operators already expanding self-collection or rapid-HPV pilots with donor, OEM, or public-health funding attached.
Market definition
A vertical operations layer for decentralized HPV screening programs: test registration, result capture, protocol enforcement, referral tracking, and program analytics across satellite, community, pharmacy, and mobile sites.
Customer and buyer
Primary economic buyer is the screening-program operations lead or medical-operations owner of rollout KPIs; daily users are site supervisors, nurses, and referral coordinators who need lightweight field workflows.
Buying triggers
- A funded push to reach the WHO coverage target or a national/provincial program redesign around HPV testing creates urgency to standardize workflows across sites. [1][4][5][14]
- A self-collection or rapid-HPV pilot that moves screening beyond the exam room exposes gaps in labeling, chain-of-custody, and referral follow-up. [9][10][11][37][38]
- Programs that already spend labor on recalls and navigation are primed to buy if software can improve closure rates or reduce repeat outreach. [6][7]
Willingness to pay
Buyers are likeliest to fund the product when it is attached to a concrete rollout or grant and when it can credibly reduce lost-to-follow-up, repeat outreach effort, or invalid/uncaptured episodes; a generic analytics-only pitch is unlikely to clear budget review. [6][7][12][13]
Category dynamics
Tailwinds
- Guidelines and approvals are steadily legitimizing self-collected and more accessible HPV screening pathways.
- Lower HPV-test pricing and donor-backed screen-and-treat programs improve the odds that decentralized deployments actually happen.
- Rapid or near-point-of-care assays make same-visit action more plausible, raising the value of field workflow orchestration.
Headwinds
- Current screening coverage is still far below target in many places, so market timing depends on program activation, not just latent need.
- Procurement and interoperability can be slower than software teams expect, especially in ministry- or donor-mediated programs.
- Programs can keep limping along on substitutes for longer than a startup hopes.
Validation signals
- WHO and national actors keep pushing toward high-performance HPV screening and coverage expansion.
- CHAI and Unitaid have already lowered key hardware costs and are funding real screen-and-treat deployments in multiple countries.
- Guidelines and approvals are opening self-collection and nontraditional care settings, increasing workflow complexity for operators.
- Recent Intu financing specifically signals that lab-free, low-infrastructure HPV testing is becoming operationally plausible rather than purely aspirational.
Regulatory & technical constraints
- Health-data handling in Europe is moving toward stricter interoperability, access control, and privacy obligations under the EHDS and adjacent rules.
- If the product crosses from workflow orchestration into diagnostic or management recommendation logic, MDR/IVDR software questions become materially more important.
- Offline-first capture is not optional in many target settings, but poor sync design can create duplicate episodes or orphaned referrals.
- Interoperability across clinician-collected, self-collected, near-point-of-care, and lab-based assays will be necessary if the product is to stay vendor-neutral.
Competition
Competition is fragmented. Organized-screening suites, generic field-workflow platforms, public-sector trackers, and EHR-integrated guideline tools all overlap with parts of the job, but no single category cleanly owns decentralized HPV result-to-referral operations.
| Competitor | Stage | Wedge | Pricing | Strength | Weakness vs. us |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roche navify Cervical Screening | incumbent | Organized cervical-screening program software tied to Roche's broader cervical portfolio. | Custom enterprise / not public | Purpose-built screening positioning, security posture, and proximity to a major HPV diagnostics portfolio. | More naturally aligned to organized screening programs and Roche-centric ecosystems than to a vendor-neutral decentralized ops layer spanning mixed site types. |
| Dimagi CommCare | scale-up | Offline-first configurable workflow platform for frontline programs. | Custom / platform subscription | Battle-tested offline execution, fast form and case workflow configuration, and strong field credibility. | Requires cervical-specific protocol design, referral analytics, and integrations to be layered on through implementation work. |
| DHIS2 toolkit / tracker ecosystem | incumbent | Public-sector reporting, supervision, and case-tracking backbone. | Open-source; implementation-led | Common in public health, extensible, and already part of many reporting environments. | Better at reporting and supervision than at same-visit workflow control and referral closure at decentralized edges. |
| CCSM CDS Tools | open-source | Standards-based cervical screening logic embedded into EHR workflows. | Open-source | Clinically rigorous, interoperable, and attractive where EHR integration is already strong. | Guideline logic is not the same thing as field deployment orchestration across outreach, pharmacy, or mobile sites. |
| Cepheid / GeneXpert HPV ecosystem | incumbent | Near-point-of-care assay platform that can anchor decentralized HPV programs. | Instrument plus consumables; workflow economics not public | Strong assay brand and fast turnaround that make same-visit workflows valuable. | Owns the test, not the full cross-site referral and follow-up operating layer buyers still need. |
Why incumbents do not win by default
- Diagnostic OEMs. They control assays, validation, and some program software, but they do not win by default because buyers often need a vendor-neutral workflow layer spanning multiple site types, referral pathways, and legacy systems.
- Generic workflow platforms. Platforms like CommCare can solve offline data capture and tasking, but most of the cervical-specific protocol logic, analytics, and integrations still become implementation work.
- Public-sector HMIS stacks. DHIS2-class systems are strong for reporting and supervision, but weaker at same-visit operational control and closed-loop referral execution at the edge.
- EHR/LIS and guideline tools. EHR-embedded tools can provide rules and record-keeping, yet they typically assume better infrastructure and do not naturally manage mobile, pharmacy, or outreach site operations.
Business plan
Rapid HPV Screening Ops is a workflow platform for women's-health screening operators launching decentralized rapid HPV programs across 20 to 100 satellite, mobile, pharmacy, or community sites. The product's job is not diagnostic interpretation; it is to make every screening episode auditable from test registration through result capture, counseling, referral, and follow-up. The initial beachhead is donor-funded or private clinic networks rolling out rapid-HPV or self-collection pilots, because those programs have a visible launch event, measurable rollout KPIs, and enough site repetition to support a product instead of custom services. Go-to-market starts with high-touch deployments sold against referral-closure improvement, lost-to-follow-up reduction, and invalid-episode reduction, not a generic analytics pitch. Product sequencing stays vendor-neutral and operational so the first release can interoperate with multiple assay and reporting environments without taking on avoidable diagnostic-software regulatory burden. The main disconfirming risks are hardware adoption timing, slow public-health procurement, and whether OEMs expose enough event data to reduce manual entry. Research supports a roughly $120.0M serviceable market for organized multi-site programs and a modeled $3.0M year-three SOM, which justifies a disciplined pre-seed wedge but not a broad category land-grab yet. Missing facts that matter for underwriting are real reimbursement behavior, OEM data-sharing willingness, and whether buyers will fund this from operating, grant, or diagnostic rollout budgets.
Problem
- Rapid or lab-free HPV testing removes lab turnaround as the bottleneck, but decentralized programs still lose patients between result, counseling, referral, and follow-up.
- Current alternatives such as paper registers, spreadsheets, generic EHR notes, DHIS2 reporting, or configurable field tools do not natively control same-visit decentralized HPV workflows.
- Screening operators need one system that works across low-connectivity, mixed-infrastructure sites without turning each rollout into bespoke services work.
- If result capture, chain-of-custody, and referral closure fail, the economic and clinical value of same-visit screening collapses.
Solution
- Offline-capable field workflow app for test registration, result capture, protocol enforcement, and next-step tasking at each screening site.
- Supervisor dashboard for stock visibility, invalid-test monitoring, positive-result queues, referral status, and site-level completion metrics.
- Configurable protocol templates for decentralized HPV programs so new sites can launch on a repeatable operating model instead of custom spreadsheets and messaging threads.
- Vendor-neutral interoperability layer that can plug into assay vendors, DHIS2-class reporting systems, and local record systems while avoiding diagnostic decisioning in v1.
Why we win
- The wedge is narrow and urgent: result-to-referral orchestration for decentralized HPV programs, not a broad EHR, LIS, or consumer testing platform.
- Vendor-neutral and offline-first design fits mixed site types better than OEM-specific software or clinic-bound guideline tools.
- Every deployment can improve reusable protocol templates and benchmark data on invalid rates, counseling latency, referral lag, and closure.
- By staying on the operational side of the workflow first, the company can move faster than teams that start with diagnostic or triage automation.
| Beachhead | Women's-health screening networks and donor-backed cervical-screening operators launching rapid HPV or self-collection programs across 20+ distributed sites where positive patients are currently lost between screening and follow-up. |
|---|---|
| Wedge rationale | This buyer has a live rollout event, repeated workflows across many sites, and direct accountability for closure metrics; that makes deployment software easier to prove quickly than a broader sell into hospitals, single clinics, or consumer testing. |
| Sequencing | The company should first prove an operational workflow product with manual or light integration, then add benchmark analytics and deeper system integrations, and only later expand into adjacent disease programs or more automated recommendation logic. GTM follows the same order: direct pilots first, then OEM and implementer channels once KPI proof and repeatable onboarding exist. Hiring should mirror that sequence with founding product/engineering and implementation first, integration and channel sales after the product survives real field use. |
| Not yet | Consumer at-home HPV testing workflows as the primary market · Full EHR or LIS replacement · Automated diagnostic interpretation or treatment recommendation logic · Broad multi-disease expansion before HPV referral closure metrics are proven |
| Wedge | Sell the first deployment as the operating layer that makes same-visit decentralized HPV screening auditable: every test episode captured, every positive routed, every referral tracked to closure. |
|---|---|
| Channels | Direct sales to screening-program operators during pilot launch or site expansion · Co-sell partnerships with diagnostic OEMs and distributors · Donor- or NGO-backed deployments with implementers such as CHAI, Unitaid, or Jhpiego-like partners |
| Funnel targets | lead→qualified pilot 20–30%, qualified pilot→paid pilot 40%+, paid pilot→production conversion 50%+, production account→second-region or multi-site expansion 60%+ |
| Pricing | Annual per-site SaaS plus per completed screening episode, with paid implementation and optional referral analytics/reporting modules; this matches rollout budgets because buyers pay for a concrete operating capability that scales with active screening volume rather than a generic seat license. |
| MVP | Version 1 is an offline-capable episode workflow for decentralized HPV programs: register the test, capture the result, enforce protocol steps, assign follow-up tasks, and report closure by site and cohort. It should support configurable protocol templates, role-based access, audit logs, and manual or light integration paths rather than full diagnostic automation. |
|---|---|
| 6 months | Deploy a production MVP into one design-partner program with offline sync, site dashboards, referral queue management, configurable protocols, and exports into the buyer's existing reporting workflow. |
| 12 months | Add reusable onboarding playbooks, benchmark analytics, one to two assay or reporting integrations, and multi-program administration so pilots can convert into repeatable production accounts. |
| 24 months | Expand from HPV-only workflows into adjacent decentralized women's-health or infectious-disease screening programs that share the same edge-site orchestration and referral-closure problem. |
| Key bets | Buyers will pay for measurable referral-closure and invalid-episode improvement before they demand broad analytics. · A configurable protocol engine can absorb geography and site-level variation without turning implementations into custom software projects. · Manual or semi-manual result capture is acceptable for early pilots if the workflow materially improves closure metrics. · Vendor-neutral integrations will matter more to buyers than deep lock-in to a single diagnostic OEM. |
| Revenue streams | Per-site software subscriptions · Per completed screening episode fees · Implementation and onboarding fees · Premium referral analytics and multi-program reporting modules |
|---|---|
| Unit of value | Completed screening episode managed from result capture to documented next-step completion |
| Target gross margin | 70% |
| Expansion levers | Expand from one pilot region into the customer's full site network · Add reporting, benchmark, and supervisor modules once core workflow is live · Support additional assay vendors and sample pathways · Extend the protocol engine into adjacent decentralized molecular screening programs |
| North-star metric | Percentage of positive HPV screening episodes that reach documented referral or same-visit next-step completion within the program target window |
|---|---|
| Input metrics | Result capture completeness rate · Positive-result to counseling time · Referral closure rate within SLA · Invalid-test rate by site · New-site activation time · Offline sync success rate |
| Moats to build | Reusable decentralized-HPV protocol templates · Cross-site benchmark dataset on referral closure, invalid rates, and workflow latency · Vendor-neutral integration adapters for assay and reporting systems · Implementation playbooks that reduce time-to-live for new programs |
| Kill criteria | If within 12 months no two multi-site programs agree to paid pilots, the buying trigger is weaker than assumed. · If the first two pilots fail to improve referral closure by at least 10 percentage points or reduce uncaptured episodes by at least 20%, the wedge is not strong enough. · If production deployments still require heavy custom implementation after three launches, the business is services-led rather than software-led. |
Milestones
- Ship offline-capable MVP for decentralized HPV episode management and referral tracking.
- Secure two paid pilots with multi-site screening programs.
- Prove measurable improvement in referral closure or uncaptured-episode reduction in at least one pilot.
- Complete one OEM or reporting-system integration and one external regulatory memo.
- Convert at least two pilots into production contracts spanning broader site networks.
- Launch benchmark analytics across customers and use them in renewal and expansion motions.
- Establish one repeatable OEM or implementer channel that produces qualified deployments.
- Expand protocol support to adjacent self-collection or related decentralized screening workflows.
- Operate a multi-program network with enough benchmark data to differentiate from generic field-workflow tools.
- Support multiple assay and reporting environments while preserving vendor-neutral positioning.
- Decide whether to remain HPV-focused or expand into additional molecular screening categories based on sales efficiency and retention evidence.
flowchart LR Wedge[Decentralized HPV workflow wedge] --> MVP[Offline MVP for registration result capture and referral queues] MVP --> Proof[Paid pilots prove closure improvement and repeatable onboarding] Proof --> Expansion[OEM channels multi-site expansion and adjacent screening workflows]
Founding team
| Role | Start timing | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Founding eng | Month 0 | Build the offline-first workflow engine, audit trail, and first deployment architecture without outsourcing the technical core. |
| Product / implementation founder | Month 0 | Own ICP discovery, rollout design, and KPI definition so the product stays tied to actual screening operations. |
| Clinical implementation lead | Month 3 | Translate protocol variation into repeatable templates, train sites, and keep early deployments from becoming ad hoc services. |
| Backend / integration eng | Month 4 | Accelerate OEM, DHIS2, and record-system integrations once the MVP survives initial field use. |
| Partnerships / enterprise seller | Month 6 | Convert pilot proof into OEM, implementer, and multi-program channel deals after the first value case is established. |
Experiment roadmap
| Horizon | Experiment | Hypothesis | Success metric | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-90 days | Interview and workflow-map 20 screening operators, implementers, and site leads across three target program types. | The buying trigger, KPI owner, and workflow failure points are consistent enough to support one clear beachhead ICP. | Three design partners confirm the same core episode flow and agree to pilot scoping. | CEO / product founder |
| 0-90 days | Prototype an offline field workflow and supervisor dashboard for one decentralized HPV protocol. | Field staff can complete result capture and referral tasking in one lightweight flow without harming throughput. | At least 80% of usability test participants complete the full episode flow without facilitator intervention. | Founding eng |
| 3-6 months | Run the first paid multi-site pilot with baseline and post-launch measurement of capture completeness, invalid episodes, and referral closure. | The product creates measurable operational lift large enough to justify recurring spend. | Referral closure improves by at least 10 percentage points or uncaptured episodes fall by at least 20%. | Clinical implementation lead |
| 3-6 months | Complete technical diligence with at least two OEMs or distributors and build one lightweight integration adapter. | Partner event and result data can reduce manual reconciliation enough to strengthen the wedge. | One partner provides sample specs or sandbox access and the adapter reduces manual episode reconciliation materially. | Backend / integration eng |
| 6-12 months | Launch one co-sold or implementer-backed deployment beyond the first direct pilot. | OEM and implementer channels can shorten sales cycles once KPI proof exists. | One signed channel-assisted deployment or funded rollout expansion closes within 120 days of pilot proof. | Partnerships lead |
Risk assessment
- R1Rapid or lab-free HPV hardware adoption takes longer than expected. — Sell into rollout planning, self-collection, and follow-up workflows that remain useful across assay timelines, and avoid overbuilding OEM-specific product before demand is visible.
- R2Budget and procurement cycles are slower and more fragmented than an early SaaS plan assumes. — Anchor every sale to a live rollout event with explicit KPI ownership and build parallel channel paths through OEMs and implementers.
- R3Workflow variation across geographies turns onboarding into custom services work. — Narrow the ICP to repeatable multi-site programs first and enforce a protocol-template architecture instead of bespoke builds.
- R4The product drifts into regulated clinical decisioning earlier than planned. — Keep v1 focused on task orchestration, documentation, and analytics, and validate regulatory boundaries before adding next-best-action automation.
- R5OEM or local-system integration access is insufficient, leaving too much manual reconciliation. — Design the MVP to work manually first, then prioritize partners and geographies where event-level interoperability is realistic.
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid or lab-free HPV hardware adoption takes longer than expected. | Medium | High | Sell into rollout planning, self-collection, and follow-up workflows that remain useful across assay timelines, and avoid overbuilding OEM-specific product before demand is visible. |
| Budget and procurement cycles are slower and more fragmented than an early SaaS plan assumes. | High | High | Anchor every sale to a live rollout event with explicit KPI ownership and build parallel channel paths through OEMs and implementers. |
| Workflow variation across geographies turns onboarding into custom services work. | Medium | High | Narrow the ICP to repeatable multi-site programs first and enforce a protocol-template architecture instead of bespoke builds. |
| The product drifts into regulated clinical decisioning earlier than planned. | Medium | Medium | Keep v1 focused on task orchestration, documentation, and analytics, and validate regulatory boundaries before adding next-best-action automation. |
| OEM or local-system integration access is insufficient, leaving too much manual reconciliation. | Medium | Medium | Design the MVP to work manually first, then prioritize partners and geographies where event-level interoperability is realistic. |
| Title | Director of screening operations at a multi-site cervical-screening program |
|---|---|
| Profile | A donor-funded or private women's-health network running 20+ satellite, pharmacy, mobile, or community screening sites and struggling to track decentralized HPV episodes to closure. |
| Trigger | Launch of a rapid-HPV or self-collection rollout, or an explicit mandate to reduce lost-to-follow-up after positive screens. |
| Buyer | Director of screening programs, COO, or medical operations lead |
| Initial contract | Hypothesis: a paid pilot in the roughly $40k–$120k range covering one region or 20–50 sites, converting to annual per-site and per-episode pricing once closure and capture KPIs are met. |
What must be true
- At least one buyer segment can fund the product from rollout, grant, or operating budgets without waiting for a national platform decision.
- The first pilots can improve referral closure enough that program leaders treat the software as mission-critical, not optional reporting.
- A repeatable deployment can go live across 20+ sites in under 60 days with limited custom work.
- Generic alternatives such as CommCare, DHIS2, or EHR workflows are materially worse on same-visit decentralized HPV operations.
- At least one OEM, distributor, or implementer partner will co-sell or share integration access within the first 12 months.
Open diligence questions
- Which budget line actually pays for workflow software in the first three target programs?
- What measurable lift in referral closure or nurse time savings is required for a paid conversion?
- How much of the MVP can be automated without vendor event and serial-number feeds?
- Which geographies combine decentralized screening pain with tractable privacy and interoperability requirements?
- How often do buyers choose DHIS2 or CommCare plus local integrators instead of a vertical product?
| Call | Watch |
|---|---|
| Conviction | Compelling operational pain and a coherent wedge, but customer budget ownership and hardware-timing risk are still unresolved. |
| Why believe | The plan targets a real decentralized screening bottleneck that current EHR, HMIS, OEM, and generic workflow tools only partially solve. |
| Why doubt | The same facts that create urgency also create fragility because rollout timing depends on assay adoption, grant cycles, and partner interoperability. |
| Next diligence | The next proof point is a paid multi-site pilot showing that referral closure or uncaptured-episode metrics improve enough to justify recurring software spend. |
Financial model
| Year 1 revenue | $156K EBITDA $-889K · Cash EOP $1.51M |
|---|---|
| Year 2 revenue | $1.10M EBITDA $-1.02M · Cash EOP $495K |
| Year 3 revenue | $2.94M EBITDA $-181K · Cash EOP $315K |
| ARPU (annual) | $147K |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 70% |
| CAC | $83K Payback 9.7 months |
| LTV / CAC | 5.2x LTV $429K |
| Round | pre-seed · $2.4M |
|---|---|
| Runway | 24 months |
| Milestone | Reach 10 paid programs, prove at least 2 pilot-to-production conversions, and establish 1 repeatable OEM or implementer channel by Q4Y2 while keeping a 6-month cash buffer. |
Model sanity
- Revenue engine. Base-case revenue is driven by converting two Y1 pilots into 10 paid programs by Q4Y2 and 20 by Q4Y3 at roughly $147K annual ARPU.
- Must go right. Pilot proof must convert inside 6-9 months so OEM and implementer channels reduce CAC instead of adding another slow procurement layer.
- Model breaks if. If buyers default to DHIS2 or CommCare plus local integrators and sales cycles slip two quarters, the downside case nearly consumes the cash buffer.
- Next-round proof. The seed story is strongest once Q4Y2 shows 10 paying programs, two production conversions, one working channel, and a path to positive Q4Y3 EBITDA.
- Revenue (line, area)
- Cash EOP (dashed)
- EBITDA (bars, gray = loss)
- Founder / product-implementation
- Engineering
- Integration eng
- Clinical implementation
- Sales / partnerships
- Customer success / ops
- G&A / compliance
| Y3 revenue | Y3 EBITDA | Cash low point | Description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | Two-quarter slower procurement and weaker pilot-to-production conversion keep the company more implementation-heavy. | |||
| Base | Two Y1 pilots convert, direct sales prove the wedge, and one channel starts contributing by Y2. | |||
| Upside | OEM and implementer channels shorten cycles, producing faster multi-site expansions without a big support penalty. |
| Variable | Downside | Upside | Cash impact | Revenue impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| sales cycle | Pilot-to-production conversion slips by 2 quarters | Conversion happens 1 quarter faster with channel help | ||
| CAC | CAC rises to about $90K as direct sales stay founder-heavy | CAC falls to about $62K with channel-sourced deals | ||
| ARPU | Y3 blended annual ARPU falls to about $132K per program | About $159K per program | ||
| hiring pace | Y2 commercial and implementation hires arrive 2 quarters early | One non-critical hire shifts into post-seed timing | ||
| churn | Monthly churn at 3.0% from pilot slippage and budget resets | 1.5% monthly churn on stickier annual programs | ||
| gross margin | Y3 gross margin tops out near 65% | About 73% |
Scenarios
| Scenario | Y3 revenue | Y3 EBITDA | Cash low point | Description | Key changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | $2.14M | $-560K | $120K | Two-quarter slower procurement and weaker pilot-to-production conversion keep the company more implementation-heavy. |
|
| Base | $2.94M | $-181K | $194K | Two Y1 pilots convert, direct sales prove the wedge, and one channel starts contributing by Y2. |
|
| Upside | $3.52M | $180K | $720K | OEM and implementer channels shorten cycles, producing faster multi-site expansions without a big support penalty. |
|
Sensitivity
| Variable | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARPU | Y3 blended annual ARPU falls to about $132K per program | About $147K per program | About $159K per program |
| CAC | CAC rises to about $90K as direct sales stay founder-heavy | About $83.2K | CAC falls to about $62K with channel-sourced deals |
| churn | Monthly churn at 3.0% from pilot slippage and budget resets | 2.0% monthly churn | 1.5% monthly churn on stickier annual programs |
| sales cycle | Pilot-to-production conversion slips by 2 quarters | Pilot proof converts inside 6-9 months | Conversion happens 1 quarter faster with channel help |
| gross margin | Y3 gross margin tops out near 65% | About 70% | About 73% |
| hiring pace | Y2 commercial and implementation hires arrive 2 quarters early | Hiring follows the implementation-first plan | One non-critical hire shifts into post-seed timing |
Key assumptions (23)
| ID | Name | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Model start month | 2026-07 | YYYY-MM | [BP date 2026-06-27] the model starts in the first full month after the dated business plan. |
| A2 | Opening cash / pre-seed raise | $2.4M | USD | [BP fundingAsk targetFundingRangeUsd $2–4M + BP fundingAsk runwayMonths 18] base case uses a lower-midpoint pre-seed sized to cover the 18-month plan plus a 6-month buffer. |
| A3 | Starting paying programs | 0 | count | [BP milestones 0-12 months + BP experimentRoadmap] the company begins pre-revenue and must first close paid pilots. |
| A4 | Paying program definition | A paid pilot or production deployment for one multi-site HPV screening operator | definition | [BP businessModel.revenueStreams + BP investorMemo.firstCustomer.initialContract] customersEop counts any operator already paying for pilot or production scope. |
| A5 | Year-1 pilot revenue realization | $10K-$12K monthly revenue per active paying program once pilots start | USD/program/month | [BP investorMemo.firstCustomer.initialContract $40k-$120k + BP gtm.pricing] early revenue is modeled as paid pilot and limited production revenue spread across the active months of Y1 customers. |
| A6 | Y2-Y3 blended production revenue per active program | $36K-$49K per quarter ($144K-$196K annualized) | USD/program/quarter | [BP gtm.pricing annual per-site SaaS plus per completed screening episode + BP businessModel.expansionLevers + Research market.som $3.0M] per-program revenue rises as pilots convert, sites expand, and modules attach while keeping Y3 revenue just under the researched SOM. |
| A7 | Customer ramp | 3 paying programs by M12, 10 by Q4Y2, 20 by Q4Y3 | customersEop | [BP milestones + BP gtm.funnelTargets + Research reportMemo.buyingTriggers] base case assumes two Y1 paid pilots convert and channel-assisted deployments accelerate after proof. |
| A8 | Revenue recognition convention | Period revenue equals customersEop multiplied by the blended realized revenue per active paying program for that period | formula | [BP gtm.pricing + BP businessModel.unitOfValue] this keeps revenue directly traceable to paying-program count and package mix. |
| A9 | Gross margin ramp | 45%-55% in Y1, 60%-66% in Y2, 68%-72% in Y3 | gross margin percent | [BP businessModel.targetGrossMarginPct 70 + BP operations + Research regulatoryTechnicalConstraints] early deployments carry onsite support, integration, and compliance drag before the workflow becomes more templated. |
| A10 | Hiring timeline | M1 founder/operator and founding engineer; M4 clinical implementation lead; M5 integration engineer; M7 partnerships seller; M10 customer success/ops; M11 second engineer; M16 G&A/compliance; M20 second clinical lead and second seller; M28 third engineer | timeline | [BP team + BP strategicChoices.sequencingRationale] the team is implementation-heavy first, then adds channel capacity after pilot proof. |
| A11 | Founder / product-implementation loaded compensation | $150K | USD/year | [BP team Product / implementation founder + startup-finance heuristic] lean founder pay including payroll taxes and benefits. |
| A12 | Engineering loaded compensation | $180K | USD/year | [BP team Founding eng + startup-finance heuristic] reflects experienced application and workflow engineering talent at pre-seed cash levels. |
| A13 | Integration engineer loaded compensation | $175K | USD/year | [BP team Backend / integration eng + startup-finance heuristic] integration talent must handle OEM, DHIS2, and local-record interoperability. |
| A14 | Clinical implementation loaded compensation | $135K | USD/year | [BP team Clinical implementation lead + startup-finance heuristic] reflects protocol mapping, training, and rollout ownership. |
| A15 | Sales / partnerships loaded compensation | $170K | USD/year | [BP team Partnerships / enterprise seller + BP gtm.channels + startup-finance heuristic] includes travel and variable pay for early enterprise and channel selling. |
| A16 | Customer success / ops loaded compensation | $120K | USD/year | [BP operations + startup-finance heuristic] supports onboarding, support, and KPI reviews without building a services bench. |
| A17 | G&A / compliance loaded compensation | $110K | USD/year | [Research regulatoryTechnicalConstraints + startup-finance heuristic] covers privacy, contracts, audit support, and core back office. |
| A18 | Payroll allocation to P&L lines | Founder 40% S&M / 35% R&D / 25% G&A; engineering and integration 100% R&D; clinical implementation 50% S&M / 50% R&D; sales 100% S&M; customer success 70% S&M / 30% G&A; G&A/compliance 100% G&A | allocation | [BP team role rationales + BP operations] maps headcount costs into go-to-market, product, and overhead lines. |
| A19 | Non-payroll opex ramp | Total non-payroll opex rises from $18K/month in early Y1 to $53K/month by Q4Y3 | USD/month | [BP operations + Research regulatoryTechnicalConstraints + startup-finance heuristic] covers cloud, travel, legal, insurance, training, and regulatory diligence without assuming a large field-services organization. |
| A20 | Cash conversion convention | Cash movement equals EBITDA | formula | [startup-finance heuristic] capex, taxes, debt service, and working-capital timing are assumed immaterial at pre-seed scale. |
| A21 | Steady-state monthly churn | 2.0 | percent per month | [startup-finance heuristic for early workflow SaaS] annual contracts and workflow stickiness support low churn, but public-health procurement risk keeps the model from assuming mature enterprise retention. |
| A22 | CAC convention | Y2-Y3 sales and marketing spend divided by 17 net new paying programs | formula | [model calc using base-case S&M spend + BP gtm.funnelTargets] captures founder-led and channel-led acquisition once the company starts scaling beyond the first pilots. |
| A23 | Next-round milestone for funding sizing | By Q4Y2 reach 10 paid programs, at least 2 pilot-to-production conversions, and 1 repeatable OEM or implementer channel; the raise includes a 6-month buffer beyond that milestone | milestone | [BP milestones 12-24 months + BP fundingAsk runwayMonths 18 + BP investorMemo.nextDiligence] the round is sized to reach seed-ready proof and still preserve buffer for Y3 expansion. |
flowchart LR Programs[Paid programs] --> Sites[Active screening sites] Sites --> Episodes[Completed screening episodes] Episodes --> Revenue[Site + episode revenue] Revenue --> GrossProfit[Gross profit after implementation and support] GrossProfit --> Cash[Operating cash runway] Programs --> Renewals[Pilot to production conversion] Renewals --> Revenue
Flags: The base case assumes grant- or rollout-backed budgets release on time; there is no self-serve demand engine if public-health procurement stalls. · Gross margin only reaches target if onboarding and protocol configuration become templated rather than custom services work. · Y3 revenue lands close to the researched $3.0M SOM, so post-seed upside depends on adjacent screening workflows or faster site expansion within each program.
Top risks
- Hardware adoption dependency. If lab-free HPV platforms take longer to gain regulatory or commercial traction, the software wedge may arrive before enough customers are ready. Mitigation: Start with pilots and workflow tooling that can support any rapid HPV rollout, then expand alongside whichever diagnostics platforms actually deploy first.
- Procurement drag. Screening programs, NGOs, and clinic networks can have slow budget cycles and fragmented decision-making across medical, operations, and funder stakeholders. Mitigation: Sell into concrete rollout events with site-level ROI metrics such as referral completion and invalid-test reduction, and package deployment support with the software.
- Workflow fragmentation. Referral pathways vary widely by site and geography, so a rigid product could become expensive services work instead of repeatable software. Mitigation: Design the first product around configurable protocol templates and narrow the initial ICP to multi-site programs with repeatable workflows rather than bespoke one-off pilots.
Evidence
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