Access OS for transplant and oncology clinics to identify, authorize, and deliver season-long flu antibodies to high-risk patients.
Transplant centers and hematologic oncology clinics care for patients who remain highly vulnerable to influenza even when routine vaccination underperforms, yet they do not have a dedicated operating system for season-long biologic prophylaxis. Eligibility lists are buried in EHR registries, payer authorization packets are assembled manually, and nursing, pharmacy, and infectious-disease teams often coordinate through spreadsheets and inboxes.
Why now
- Capital is now committed to making full-season influenza antibodies real, so providers need operational infrastructure before launch rather than after first prescriptions arrive.
- The first commercial beachhead is concentrated immunocompromised patients, which makes a narrow specialty-clinic workflow startup viable from day one.
- A strain-resilient annual injection creates a different care pathway from seasonal vaccines and exposes the limits of generic reminder and standing-order systems.
- Beyfortus and Enflonsia comparables imply respiratory prevention biologics are becoming a repeat category, so an enabling access layer can support multiple products over time.
Catalyst. RQ Bio's financing and product profile turn long-acting flu antibodies into an imminent launch category for immunocompromised patients, forcing specialty clinics to operationalize prevention beyond the annual vaccine playbook.
The idea
The company sells software to specialty clinics and launch teams that operationalizes annual respiratory prophylaxis for high-risk patients. It builds eligibility cohorts from transplant, oncology, and immunosuppression registries; generates protocol-specific authorization packets; and coordinates outreach, scheduling, inventory reservation, and missed-dose recovery before the season starts. For biotech launch teams, it provides a live view of which sites can find patients, clear coverage, and complete administrations on time. Over time, the startup becomes the system of record for prophylaxis readiness: who qualified, who was delayed by payer or staffing friction, which sites converted outreach into administration, and how seasonal programs perform across patient subgroups.
What's different. Existing manufacturer hub vendors and prior-authorization tools are built for broad specialty-drug fulfillment after a clinician has already decided to treat. This company starts earlier, at cohort construction and seasonal readiness, for a very specific immunocompromised population where eligibility timing matters as much as reimbursement. Its moat comes from prophylaxis-specific workflow data: which transplant and oncology subcohorts qualify, which payer paths clear fastest, which sites lose patients before administration, and how those patterns shift across respiratory biologics and seasons.
| Beachhead | U.S. kidney, lung, heart, and stem-cell transplant programs plus hematologic oncology clinics that manage large cohorts of immunocompromised outpatients and need a repeatable pre-season workflow for seasonal influenza biologic prophylaxis |
|---|---|
| Wedge | A prophylaxis access OS that finds eligible patients inside transplant and oncology registries, automates benefits verification and prior-authorization packets, orchestrates outreach and injection scheduling, and tracks completion before the influenza season |
| Non-obvious insight | The hard part of season-long flu antibodies will not be inventing one more respiratory biologic; it will be turning a narrow, high-risk population into an executable annual care pathway with the right patients, authorizations, inventory, and appointments lined up before flu season peaks. Whoever owns that workflow for immunocompromised patients can become the default distribution and data layer for every future respiratory prophylaxis product. |
| Venture-scale path | Start with flu prophylaxis deployment for immunocompromised patients, then expand the same workflow engine into RSV, COVID, and multi-pathogen respiratory antibodies, payer contracting, manufacturer hub services, and longitudinal outcomes benchmarking across specialty-care networks. |
| Primary user | Director of specialty pharmacy or ambulatory infusion operations at a U.S. academic transplant center or hematologic oncology network preparing to deploy seasonal flu prophylaxis for immunocompromised outpatients |
|---|---|
| Secondary user | Market-access and launch operations leaders at respiratory prophylaxis biotechs introducing long-acting flu antibodies into hospital and specialty-clinic channels |
| Economic buyer | Chief Pharmacy Officer or VP Ambulatory Operations |
| First customer | A top-50 U.S. academic medical center with active solid-organ transplant and hematologic malignancy programs that wants to stand up a pre-season flu-antibody workflow for several thousand immunocompromised outpatients |
|---|---|
| Buying trigger | A new long-acting flu antibody becomes available through expanded access, launch planning, or formulary review and the center realizes it lacks a clean way to identify eligible patients, clear coverage, and schedule injections before the season |
| Current alternative | Vaccine reminder workflows, manual EHR registry pulls, spreadsheet-based patient lists, specialty-pharmacy prior-authorization teams, and ad hoc outreach by nurses or clinic coordinators |
| Switching reason | The wedge beats status quo because it turns a scattered, once-a-year scramble into a measurable operating program with higher patient capture, faster authorization, and fewer missed administrations for the exact cohort the therapy is built for. |
| Pricing hypothesis | Annual subscription priced per specialty site or covered immunocompromised patient cohort, with additional implementation fees from manufacturers or health systems for launch configuration and outcomes reporting. |
Jobs to be done
| Job | Current alternative | Success metric |
|---|---|---|
| When flu season approaches, help the specialty-pharmacy lead at a transplant center identify every immunocompromised patient who should receive prophylaxis, so the center can complete administrations before community spread accelerates. | Manual registry pulls and nurse-led outreach tracked in spreadsheets | Percentage of eligible patients administered prophylaxis before the seasonal cutoff date |
| When launching a new respiratory prophylaxis antibody, help the manufacturer market-access team see which sites can operationalize the therapy fastest, so launch dollars go to centers that will convert eligible patients into completed administrations. | Manufacturer hub reports and fragmented field feedback | Time from site onboarding to first completed administration |
flowchart LR Buyer[Transplant and oncology clinic ops] --> Pain[Eligible high-risk patients are hidden and authorizations are manual] Pain --> Product[Flu prophylaxis access OS] Product --> Outcome[More on-time administrations before flu season]
- Signal · 4/5The cluster combines a large oversubscribed financing, a clear target population, and category comparables that make the workflow shift credible.
- Pain · 4/5Missing a narrow pre-season administration window for immunocompromised patients creates real clinical and operational downside for centers and launch teams.
- Wedge · 5/5Transplant and oncology prophylaxis deployment is a sharp first workflow with obvious buyers, triggers, and measurable outcomes.
- Defense · 4/5Seasonal cohort, payer, and site-conversion data should compound into a differentiated operating dataset that generic hub vendors will struggle to recreate quickly.
- Scale · 4/5The initial market is focused, but the platform can extend into multiple respiratory antibodies, additional immunocompromised populations, and manufacturer launch infrastructure.
- Transplant and oncology centers
- Specialty pharmacies
- Respiratory prophylaxis manufacturers
- Payer-services and reimbursement support vendors
- Building immunocompromised-patient cohort logic
- Automating prior-authorization and scheduling workflows
- Measuring site conversion and seasonal completion rates
- Expanding protocol templates across respiratory biologics
- Eligibility and authorization workflow engine
- Specialty-clinic integration adapters
- Dataset on prophylaxis uptake, payer outcomes, and site performance
- Clinical operations and reimbursement expertise
- Find immunocompromised patients who should receive season-long flu prophylaxis before the season starts
- Reduce manual authorization and scheduling work for specialty clinics
- Give manufacturers and health systems a measurable deployment layer for new respiratory biologics
- White-glove seasonal rollout planning
- Configuration of eligibility and payer workflows by clinic type
- Quarterly outcomes reviews with health-system and manufacturer teams
- Founder-led sales into transplant, oncology, and specialty-pharmacy leaders
- Manufacturer launch-partner agreements
- KOL referrals from infectious-disease and transplant networks
- Academic transplant centers
- Hematologic oncology networks
- Respiratory prophylaxis biotech launch teams
- Health-system specialty pharmacy organizations
- Product and integration engineering
- Clinical implementation and customer success
- Security and compliance operations
- Enterprise sales and manufacturer partnerships
- Annual SaaS subscriptions per health-system site
- Implementation and integration fees
- Manufacturer-sponsored launch modules and reporting
- Benchmarking and outcomes analytics add-ons
Market
| TAM | $96.0M Bottom-up enterprise view: 233 CMS/QCOR transplant facilities plus 74 NCI cancer centers less est. 33 overlapping institutions = ~274 core accounts; at an est. $350k annual contract, TAM is about $96.0M. |
|---|---|
| SAM | $28.1M Assume the first wave is 85 large academic systems with transplant and heme-onc intensity, each at roughly $330k blended ARR after initial deployment. |
| SOM | $5.4M A credible year-3 path is 18 enterprise wins at roughly $300k ARR after pilot-to-enterprise expansion into pharmacy, access, and seasonal reporting workflows. |
Executive takeaways
- The real wedge is not inventing another biologic; it is operationalizing a once-per-season immunocompromised prophylaxis program before the season arrives.
- Customer pain is concrete and budgetable because the workflow sits where prior authorization, specialty pharmacy, outreach, and site-of-care scheduling already break down.
- Adjacent incumbents are strong in their own lanes, but no single player clearly owns the full loop from cohort construction to completed administration for seasonal prophylaxis.
- The beachhead is commercially real but narrow, so long-term upside likely depends on extending the same operating layer into RSV, COVID, and future respiratory prophylaxis launches.
Market definition
U.S. workflow software and services for seasonal respiratory prophylaxis in immunocompromised outpatients, starting with transplant and hematologic oncology programs. The job is to turn a clinically defined high-risk cohort into completed administrations before seasonal risk peaks.
Customer and buyer
Primary users are specialty-pharmacy, ambulatory infusion, and transplant or oncology operations teams that must translate high-risk patient lists into completed prophylaxis. The economic buyer is most likely the chief pharmacy officer, specialty pharmacy leader, or VP of ambulatory operations at an academic health system; manufacturers are a secondary buyer for launch-readiness modules.
Buying triggers
- A new prophylactic monoclonal antibody or adjacent respiratory mAb enters launch planning, and the center realizes a vaccine-reminder workflow is not enough. [1][2][25][26][39]
- High-risk guidance and weak immune-response evidence make missed eligible patients clinically hard to defend, especially in transplant and B-cell-depleted populations. [3][5][6][7][20][22][23][24]
- Manual prior authorization, specialty-pharmacy, and referral steps threaten on-time starts for vulnerable patients and consume scarce staff time. [13][14][15][16][17][35]
- Oncology and specialty-pharmacy leaders already buy digital coordination tools when they reduce burden or improve outcomes, so there is a precedent budget line. [29][31][32]
Willingness to pay
Budget justification is strongest when sold against coordinator labor, care delays, and missed patient capture rather than as generic AI automation. The AMA still finds roughly 40 prior authorizations per physician per week and 95% of physicians reporting care delays, while oncology studies show a 17-step PA workflow and 71% PA rates for oral anticancer drugs. [13][16][17]
Category dynamics
Tailwinds
- Season-long respiratory prophylaxis is becoming a real launch workflow rather than a purely scientific concept.
- Immunocompromised patients remain hard to protect with vaccination and existing antivirals alone.
- Digital prior-authorization and network rails make orchestration more technically feasible than a few years ago.
Headwinds
- First-wave demand still depends on label timing and launch sequencing of flu antibodies.
- Existing substitute stacks can muddy budget ownership even when the workflow is painful.
- Site-of-care and monitoring requirements can slow rollout even after eligibility is known.
Validation signals
- RQ Bio’s financing and product profile suggest investors and operators expect a real access problem around season-long flu prophylaxis.
- Registry-driven identification and in-house oncology vaccination workflows can materially improve coverage, which implies operations are a real bottleneck.
- Pemgarda and national infusion networks already require explicit provider-location and referral workflows for immunocompromised prophylaxis.
Regulatory & technical constraints
- Drug-specific prior-authorization and medical-necessity rules remain plan-by-plan even as interoperability standards improve.
- Immunocompromised prophylactic antibodies may require healthcare-site administration or monitored follow-up, complicating office-only workflows.
- Vaccination and antivirals remain part of standard influenza prevention and treatment, so software must augment rather than replace existing protocols.
- Transplant and HCT programs need longitudinal infection and immune-status data, not just one-time scheduling.
Competition
Competition is fragmented across manufacturer hub services, prior-authorization automation, embedded specialty pharmacy, infusion execution networks, and EHR or oncology population-health platforms. That fragmentation is the opportunity: incumbents own steps, not the full seasonal prophylaxis loop.
| Competitor | Stage | Wedge | Pricing | Strength | Weakness vs. us |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ConnectiveRx | incumbent | Manufacturer-funded hub services for benefit verification, prior authorization, and patient support. | Custom enterprise / quote-based; no public pricing posted. | Strong patient-access operations and provider workflow touchpoints for specialty therapies. | Reactive to a prescription journey rather than proactive seasonal cohort construction owned by the clinic. |
| Infinitus | scale-up | AI automation for prior-authorization follow-up and payer calls. | Custom enterprise / quote-based; no public pricing posted. | Directly attacks labor-heavy payer communication with therapy-aware automation. | Starts after someone already knows which patient and request to submit. |
| Shields Health Solutions | incumbent | Embedded specialty-pharmacy and pharmacist-liaison model inside health systems. | Custom partnership economics; no public pricing posted. | Deep EHR access and human coordination with clinical credibility. | Services-heavy model that does not inherently create a prophylaxis-specific, pre-season operating layer. |
| Epic Healthy Planet | incumbent | Claims-plus-EHR population health and outreach inside the core record. | Enterprise module / quote-based; no public pricing posted. | Native workflow placement and strong data access inside Epic customers. | Does not natively close specialty-biologic authorization, site-of-care routing, and completion tracking for seasonal prophylaxis. |
| Navigating Care | scale-up | Oncology patient management, remote symptom monitoring, and proactive care delivery. | Custom enterprise / request-demo model; no public pricing posted. | Existing oncology footprint and proof that operators buy workflow products tied to reduced staff burden and better outcomes. | Focuses on engagement and care management rather than benefits work and prophylaxis-readiness execution. |
Why incumbents do not win by default
- Manufacturer hub services. They handle benefit verification and patient support well, but are typically pharma-funded and reactive to prescriptions rather than clinic-owned annual cohort readiness.
- Prior authorization automation. These tools speed payer interactions but usually begin after staff already know which patient and drug to submit.
- Health-system specialty pharmacy and infusion networks. Embedded pharmacists and infusion providers can execute access and administration, but they do not automatically build seasonal eligibility cohorts across transplant and heme-onc registries.
- EHR and oncology engagement platforms. Population-health and oncology engagement suites can stratify or message patients, but they do not natively close benefits verification, site-of-care routing, and prophylaxis completion for specialty biologics.
Business plan
This company should start as a prophylaxis access operating layer for large U.S. academic transplant and hematologic oncology programs that will be asked to deliver season-long flu antibodies to immunocompromised outpatients before each season. The customer pain is not scientific uncertainty; it is the operational gap between knowing these patients are high risk and actually identifying, authorizing, scheduling, and completing prophylaxis on time. The best first customer is a top-50 academic medical center with solid-organ transplant, stem-cell transplant, and heme-onc volume large enough to make a once-per-season program visible to pharmacy and ambulatory-operations leadership. The product should stay narrow in year one: registry-based cohort building, protocol-specific authorization packets, outreach work queues, site-of-care routing, and completion tracking. This wedge is stronger than a generic prior-authorization or population-health tool because it closes the full seasonal loop for one high-acuity cohort rather than optimizing one step after prescribing. Go-to-market should treat the first customer, buying trigger, pricing, and distribution channel as one system: sell a paid pre-season pilot when a new flu or adjacent respiratory mAb reaches formulary or launch planning, then convert to an annual site subscription tied to completed seasonal readiness. The medium-term upside comes from reusing the same workflow, payer templates, and benchmark data across RSV, COVID, and future respiratory prophylaxis programs, not from expanding broadly across all specialty drugs. The biggest disconfirming risk is launch timing and coverage uncertainty for first-wave flu antibodies; if the category slips or remains too narrow, the company must prove the product on adjacent respiratory prophylaxis workflows fast. Exact payer policy and administration-setting requirements for the first flu products are still missing from the inputs, so the plan assumes design partners will validate those constraints before heavy integration spend.
Problem
- Transplant and hematologic oncology centers can name the high-risk populations they worry about, but they do not have a repeatable annual workflow to turn registry cohorts into completed prophylaxis before community spread rises.
- Manual prior authorization, specialty-pharmacy coordination, outreach, and site-of-care scheduling consume scarce staff time and create missed-patient risk precisely in the immunocompromised cohorts least protected by routine vaccination.
Solution
- Deploy a clinic-owned prophylaxis access OS that imports transplant and heme-onc registries, applies protocol-specific eligibility rules, generates authorization packets, and routes patients into outreach and scheduling queues before the season.
- Give pharmacy, infusion, and manufacturer launch teams one operating view of who is eligible, who is blocked by payer or logistics friction, and which administrations are complete, delayed, or missed.
Why we win
- The company starts earlier than hub vendors and ePA tools by owning cohort construction and seasonal readiness, not just reimbursement work after a clinician already writes an order.
- Each season compounds proprietary data on immunocompromised eligibility rules, payer turnaround paths, denial reasons, and site-level completion rates that fragmented incumbents do not naturally aggregate.
| Beachhead | U.S. academic health systems with solid-organ transplant, stem-cell transplant, and hematologic oncology programs that manage large immunocompromised outpatient cohorts and expect a pre-season respiratory prophylaxis program. |
|---|---|
| Wedge rationale | This entry point creates faster proof than selling to general specialty-drug operations because the patient cohort is clinically defined, the seasonal deadline is visible, and the workflow already breaks across pharmacy, reimbursement, and infusion teams. A narrow pre-season program can show value in one season on identified-patient yield, authorization speed, and completed administrations without replacing the EHR or taking responsibility for broader longitudinal care. |
| Sequencing | Product, GTM, and hiring should begin with lightweight registry imports, rules configuration, prior-authorization templates, outreach work queues, and services-assisted implementation because those are the minimum assets needed to win one flagship pilot quickly. Only after 3-5 production sites prove direct budget ownership should the company add deeper EHR write-back, manufacturer dashboards, and cross-protocol benchmarks; otherwise the team risks building a broad respiratory platform before it has shown that a single seasonal wedge converts to durable ARR. |
| Not yet | Replace the core EHR, specialty-pharmacy platform, or infusion management system · Sell a generalized specialty-drug access platform across all indications in year one · Enter community oncology, payer, or manufacturer-primary workflows before academic-center proof exists · Build consumer adherence or post-administration monitoring products before access and completion metrics are reliable |
| Wedge | Sell a pre-season prophylaxis readiness program for transplant and heme-onc centers, not a generic AI prior-authorization assistant or a replacement population-health platform. |
|---|---|
| Channels | Founder-led direct sales to chief pharmacy officers, specialty-pharmacy leaders, and ambulatory-operations executives at top academic systems · Design-partner and co-sell relationships with respiratory prophylaxis manufacturer launch teams after one provider case study exists · Implementation partnerships with embedded specialty-pharmacy teams, ePA rails, and infusion-network operators that shorten deployment without owning the customer |
| Funnel targets | Lead→qualified pilot 25-35%, qualified pilot→paid pilot 30-40%, paid pilot→production 60%+, production account→second protocol or second service-line expansion within 12 months in 50%+ of converted customers. |
| Pricing | Start with a $40K-$75K paid pre-season pilot for one center or service line, then convert to an annual site subscription priced by covered program intensity and protocol count at roughly $250K-$350K ARR. This matches buyer economics because the customer is paying for completed seasonal readiness across a defined cohort, while manufacturer reporting and implementation remain separate paid modules rather than the core revenue base. |
| MVP | MVP is a services-assisted seasonal workflow layer that ingests registry exports, applies protocol-specific eligibility logic, assembles prior-authorization packets, creates outreach and scheduling queues, and tracks administration completion with audit logs. It should prove that one center can raise on-time prophylaxis completion without waiting for deep EHR integration. |
|---|---|
| 6 months | Launch 2-3 paid pilots with registry imports, eligibility rules for transplant and B-cell-depleted cohorts, payer-template automation, outreach queues, site-of-care routing, and dashboards for identified patients, authorization status, and completed administrations. |
| 12 months | Convert at least 3 pilots to production, add a reusable payer-denial knowledge base, and expand the workflow to one adjacent respiratory prophylaxis protocol such as RSV or COVID readiness for the same health systems. |
| 24 months | Build a multi-protocol respiratory prophylaxis command center with cross-site benchmarks, manufacturer launch-readiness reporting, and deeper integrations once the company has enough production data to standardize cohort and authorization playbooks credibly. |
| Key bets | Buyers will fund a clinic-owned seasonal readiness layer if it measurably improves completed prophylaxis before the seasonal cutoff date. · Lightweight registry imports and manual QA can prove value faster than waiting for full bidirectional EHR integration. · Adjacent RSV and COVID prophylaxis workflows will reuse enough of the same rules, payer templates, and site routing to justify expansion. · Payer-path and completion data will become a defensible benchmark asset rather than staying a one-off implementation artifact. |
| Revenue streams | Annual site subscription for provider-owned respiratory prophylaxis workflows · One-time implementation and protocol-configuration fees · Manufacturer-sponsored launch-readiness dashboards and outcomes reporting · Benchmarking and cross-site preparedness analytics after enough production data accumulates |
|---|---|
| Unit of value | Eligible immunocompromised patient progressed from identification to completed prophylaxis, monetized as an annual site program |
| Target gross margin | 70% |
| Expansion levers | Expand from one service line into transplant, heme-onc, and adjacent immunocompromised programs within the same health system · Add RSV, COVID, and future respiratory prophylaxis protocols to existing customers · Sell launch-readiness and site-performance reporting to manufacturers once provider benchmarks are credible · Introduce payer-template libraries and denial analytics that reduce time to authorization across seasons |
| North-star metric | Percent of eligible immunocompromised patients completed on prophylaxis before the site-defined seasonal cutoff |
|---|---|
| Input metrics | Eligible-patient identification rate versus manual baseline · Median prior-authorization turnaround time · Percent of targeted patients scheduled within 14 days of eligibility confirmation · Completed-administration rate before seasonal cutoff · Paid pilot to annual production conversion rate |
| Moats to build | Eligibility-rule library spanning transplant timing, immunosuppressive regimens, and B-cell-depleting therapies · Payer-path and denial-reason dataset for respiratory prophylaxis under medical-benefit workflows · Cross-site benchmark data on patient capture, authorization speed, and completion by cohort and protocol · Repeatable implementation playbooks that coexist with EHR, specialty-pharmacy, and infusion-network partners |
| Kill criteria | If the first 3 design-partner centers cannot provide enough cohort and workflow data to baseline identified patients, authorization steps, and completion status within 60 days, the wedge is too operationally opaque. · If paid pilots do not improve completed prophylaxis before the seasonal cutoff by at least 20% or reduce authorization turnaround by at least 30% versus baseline, the workflow value is not strong enough for premium enterprise pricing. · If fewer than half of paid pilots convert to annual production or adjacent respiratory-protocol expansion within one season of measured ROI, direct budget ownership is too weak for venture-scale growth. |
Milestones
- Sign 2-3 academic design partners and launch at least 2 paid pilots
- Prove under-10-week deployment using registry imports rather than deep EHR integration
- Show baseline-to-pilot improvement in identified patients, authorization turnaround, and completed administrations
- Convert at least 3 pilots into annual production contracts or documented expansion commitments
- Expand the first production accounts from one service line into transplant and heme-onc coverage across the health system
- Launch one adjacent RSV or COVID prophylaxis protocol with measurable reuse of templates and workflow logic
- Build the first payer-denial knowledge base and benchmark reporting layer across production customers
- Add one manufacturer reporting or co-sell agreement tied to site-readiness visibility
- Reach roughly 18 enterprise customers and validate the researched year-3 SOM path
- Standardize multi-protocol respiratory prophylaxis playbooks across academic centers
- Introduce benchmark analytics and manufacturer modules as expansion products with customer references
- Decide whether to stay provider-first or add a larger manufacturer-led channel based on proven budget ownership
flowchart LR Wedge[Academic prophylaxis wedge] --> MVP[Seasonal access MVP] MVP --> Proof[Completion and authorization proof] Proof --> Expansion[Multi-protocol respiratory expansion]
Founding team
| Role | Start timing | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| CEO founder | Month 0 | Owns founder-led sales, design-partner recruitment, pricing, and early manufacturer conversations while the motion is still discovery-heavy. |
| Founding eng | Month 0 | Builds the registry ingestion, rules engine, audit logging, and workflow interfaces that determine deployment speed and product credibility. |
| Product and implementation lead | Month 2 | Encodes protocol workflows, shortens pilot onboarding, and turns services-heavy first deployments into a repeatable playbook. |
| Reimbursement and clinical operations lead | Month 4 | Owns payer-template quality, denial analysis, and site-of-care workflow design so the product reflects real pharmacy and infusion constraints. |
| Strategic account executive or partnerships lead | Month 9 | Adds sales and co-sell capacity only after the company has one production case study and a documented pilot-to-production motion. |
Experiment roadmap
| Horizon | Experiment | Hypothesis | Success metric | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–90 days | Interview 15 chief pharmacy officers, specialty-pharmacy directors, transplant operators, and heme-onc access leads at target academic systems. | Buyers will describe the same urgent failure mode around seasonal cohort identification, prior authorization, and scheduling before flu season. | At least 10 interviews confirm a shared buying trigger and 5 provide baseline data on current identification or authorization workflows. | CEO founder |
| 0–90 days | Run 2 concierge readiness assessments using historical transplant or heme-onc registry exports and manual authorization packet assembly. | Even before full product automation, the company can surface missed eligible patients and quantify operational leakage convincingly. | Two centers receive baseline reports and at least one signs a paid pilot scope tied to the next prophylaxis planning cycle. | Founding eng |
| 90–180 days | Ship the first MVP with registry import, eligibility rules, payer-template generation, outreach queues, and completion dashboards for 2-3 pilots. | The product can go live in under 10 weeks and produce customer-owned metrics without requiring deep EHR integration. | First paid pilot live within 10 weeks and reporting weekly on identified patients, authorization status, scheduling, and completed administrations. | Product and implementation lead |
| 90–180 days | Test paid-pilot packaging against annual site subscription pricing with at least 3 qualified buyers. | Buyers will accept a pre-season pilot and see a credible path to $250K-$350K ARR if ROI is framed around completed prophylaxis and staff time saved. | At least 2 paid pilots signed and one buyer pre-approves annual pricing contingent on hitting pilot KPIs. | CEO founder |
| 180–360 days | Add one adjacent RSV or COVID prophylaxis workflow for an existing customer and compare implementation effort with the initial flu workflow. | Adjacent respiratory protocols reuse enough of the same product and implementation assets to create efficient expansion. | Second protocol deployed in under 6 weeks with at least 60% asset reuse and a signed expansion order from one production customer. | Product lead |
| 180–540 days | Launch one manufacturer reporting or co-sell motion after the first provider production case study. | Provider-side proof will make manufacturer launch teams willing to fund site-readiness reporting or referrals into new centers. | Partner-sourced opportunities reach at least 20% of qualified pipeline and produce one signed commercial agreement. | Partnerships lead |
Risk assessment
- R1Flu-antibody launch or label timing slips enough that the beachhead remains too small for repeatable sales in the first 18 months. — Prioritize customers that already manage RSV or COVID prophylaxis workflows so the same product can prove value before a broad flu launch.
- R2Embedded specialty-pharmacy teams and incumbent workflow tools solve enough of the problem that buyers resist a new standalone layer. — Prove value on the full seasonal loop and quantify what incumbents do not close today, especially eligible-patient capture and completed-administration rates.
- R3Payer rules remain heterogeneous enough that implementation becomes services-heavy and slows gross-margin expansion. — Build reusable authorization templates and denial taxonomy from the first season, and narrow early customers to payer environments with enough overlap to compound learning.
- R4Site-of-care and monitored-administration requirements make scheduling and referral routing more complex than the initial MVP can support. — Include site-of-care routing and partner handoffs in the MVP instead of treating administration logistics as a later add-on.
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flu-antibody launch or label timing slips enough that the beachhead remains too small for repeatable sales in the first 18 months. | Medium | High | Prioritize customers that already manage RSV or COVID prophylaxis workflows so the same product can prove value before a broad flu launch. |
| Embedded specialty-pharmacy teams and incumbent workflow tools solve enough of the problem that buyers resist a new standalone layer. | Medium | High | Prove value on the full seasonal loop and quantify what incumbents do not close today, especially eligible-patient capture and completed-administration rates. |
| Payer rules remain heterogeneous enough that implementation becomes services-heavy and slows gross-margin expansion. | High | Medium | Build reusable authorization templates and denial taxonomy from the first season, and narrow early customers to payer environments with enough overlap to compound learning. |
| Site-of-care and monitored-administration requirements make scheduling and referral routing more complex than the initial MVP can support. | Medium | Medium | Include site-of-care routing and partner handoffs in the MVP instead of treating administration logistics as a later add-on. |
| Title | Chief Pharmacy Officer at a top-50 academic transplant center |
|---|---|
| Profile | Oversees specialty pharmacy, infusion, and ambulatory operations across solid-organ transplant and heme-onc clinics serving several thousand immunocompromised outpatients. |
| Trigger | Formulary review, expanded-access planning, or manufacturer launch preparation for a new respiratory prophylaxis mAb exposes that the center cannot reliably find, authorize, and schedule eligible patients before flu season. |
| Buyer | Chief Pharmacy Officer |
| Initial contract | $40K-$75K paid pre-season pilot for one center or service line, converting to roughly $250K-$350K ARR when the workflow rolls across transplant, heme-onc, and adjacent respiratory protocols. |
What must be true
- At least 3 of the first 5 target centers must show that missed prophylaxis is driven materially by eligibility-capture and access friction rather than lack of clinical demand.
- A lightweight overlay using registry imports and manual QA must go live in under 10 weeks without requiring full EHR write-back.
- Paid pilots must improve completed prophylaxis before the seasonal cutoff by at least 20% or cut authorization turnaround by at least 30% versus baseline.
- Buyers must accept a path to $250K+ annual budget once first-season ROI is visible, rather than relying indefinitely on innovation funds or manufacturer subsidy.
- Adjacent RSV or COVID workflows must be reusable enough to create a second expansion line within 18 months, or the flu-only wedge remains too narrow.
Open diligence questions
- Which exact transplant and heme-onc cohorts can design partners identify reliably from current registry exports without a full data-engineering project?
- What payer documentation package will the first respiratory prophylaxis mAbs require under the medical benefit, and how variable will that be across major plans?
- How often do embedded specialty-pharmacy teams already solve enough of the workflow to reduce willingness to buy a standalone access layer?
- What proof threshold moves this purchase from innovation or launch planning budget into recurring pharmacy or ambulatory-operations budget?
- How similar are RSV, COVID, and flu prophylaxis workflows in practice once site-of-care routing and monitoring requirements are included?
| Call | Meet / investigate further |
|---|---|
| Conviction | Moderate conviction because the wedge and buyer pain are concrete, but the category still depends on one center proving recurring budget ownership before launch timing slips. |
| Why believe | The company targets a measurable pre-season operational bottleneck where pharmacy, reimbursement, and infusion friction already create avoidable delays for high-risk patients. |
| Why doubt | The beachhead may be too narrow or too launch-dependent if adjacent RSV and COVID workflows do not expand the budget fast enough. |
| Next diligence | Secure one academic design partner with baseline workflow data and a paid pilot tied to a named respiratory-prophylaxis launch or formulary event. |
Financial model
| Year 1 revenue | $455K EBITDA $-1.04M · Cash EOP $1.56M |
|---|---|
| Year 2 revenue | $2.19M EBITDA $-959K · Cash EOP $601K |
| Year 3 revenue | $4.92M EBITDA $-9K · Cash EOP $592K |
| ARPU (annual) | $300K |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 70% |
| CAC | $149K Payback 8.5 months |
| LTV / CAC | 9.8x LTV $1.46M |
| Round | pre-seed · $2.6M |
|---|---|
| Runway | 24 months |
| Milestone | Reach 12 production sites, launch one adjacent RSV or COVID protocol, and sign one manufacturer reporting agreement by Y2 exit while retaining roughly six months of cash buffer. |
Model sanity
- Revenue engine. Base-case revenue comes from moving from 4 active paid accounts at Y1 exit to 18 by Y3 exit, with most value created by converting pilots into $300K production sites and then attaching a small reporting module layer.
- Must go right. The company has to keep pilot-to-production conversion on roughly a same-season cadence while proving at least one adjacent RSV or COVID workflow reuses the flu playbook.
- Model breaks if. If recurring budget approval or conversion timing slips by about one quarter, the downside case turns cash negative before Y3 finishes.
- Next-round proof. A credible next-round story appears once 12 production sites, one adjacent protocol, and one manufacturer reporting agreement are live by Y2 exit with cash still above a six-month buffer.
- Revenue (line, area)
- Cash EOP (dashed)
- EBITDA (bars, gray = loss)
- CEO founder
- Founding eng
- Product and implementation lead
- Reimbursement and clinical operations lead
- Strategic account executive or partnerships lead
- Product engineer
- Data/integration engineer
- Implementation associate
- Account executive
- Customer success manager
- Clinical workflow analyst
- RevOps and G&A manager
| Y3 revenue | Y3 EBITDA | Cash low point | Description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | One-quarter slower pilot conversion, lower realized pricing, and weaker module attach keep the company below the SOM path and force a bridge before Y3 ends. | |||
| Base | Three converted Y1 sites compound into 18 active accounts by Y3 exit, with limited but real implementation and manufacturer-module revenue on top of the core site subscription. | |||
| Upside | Reference accounts compress sales cycles, second-protocol expansion lands earlier, and the company becomes clearly profitable in Y3. |
| Variable | Downside | Upside | Cash impact | Revenue impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| sales cycle | Academic security, formulary, and budgeting add roughly one quarter to the pilot-to-production cycle. | Reference sites pull conversion and new-logo timing forward by roughly one quarter. | ||
| gross margin | Delivery stays more services-heavy and gross margin settles near 65%. | Reusable templates and denial knowledge lift gross margin toward 72%. | ||
| ARPU | Realized economics land closer to a $280K production contract and lighter add-on attach. | Realized economics land closer to a $320K production contract with stronger add-on attach. | ||
| churn | Budget ownership proves weaker and Y3 exits about one account lower than the base path. | The workflow becomes embedded and Y3 exits about one account higher than the base path. | ||
| CAC | Security reviews, procurement, and travel push effective S&M intensity about 15% above plan. | Partner referrals and repeat references pull effective S&M intensity about 10% below plan. | ||
| hiring pace | Customer success and operational support hires must be pulled about one quarter earlier without creating matching revenue yet. | Templated onboarding lets later support hires stay on the current schedule. |
Scenarios
| Scenario | Y3 revenue | Y3 EBITDA | Cash low point | Description | Key changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | $4.00M | $-618K | $-277K | One-quarter slower pilot conversion, lower realized pricing, and weaker module attach keep the company below the SOM path and force a bridge before Y3 ends. |
|
| Base | $4.92M | $-9K | $508K | Three converted Y1 sites compound into 18 active accounts by Y3 exit, with limited but real implementation and manufacturer-module revenue on top of the core site subscription. |
|
| Upside | $6.00M | $719K | $1.25M | Reference accounts compress sales cycles, second-protocol expansion lands earlier, and the company becomes clearly profitable in Y3. |
|
Sensitivity
| Variable | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARPU | Realized economics land closer to a $280K production contract and lighter add-on attach. | Base case keeps core production ARR at $300K with modest module revenue. | Realized economics land closer to a $320K production contract with stronger add-on attach. |
| CAC | Security reviews, procurement, and travel push effective S&M intensity about 15% above plan. | Base case CAC stays near $149.3K per net new active account. | Partner referrals and repeat references pull effective S&M intensity about 10% below plan. |
| churn | Budget ownership proves weaker and Y3 exits about one account lower than the base path. | Base case assumes 1.2% monthly churn and embeds modest attrition in the customer path. | The workflow becomes embedded and Y3 exits about one account higher than the base path. |
| sales cycle | Academic security, formulary, and budgeting add roughly one quarter to the pilot-to-production cycle. | Base case assumes pilots convert within the same season or immediately after ROI is shown. | Reference sites pull conversion and new-logo timing forward by roughly one quarter. |
| gross margin | Delivery stays more services-heavy and gross margin settles near 65%. | Base case holds the 70% margin target from the business plan. | Reusable templates and denial knowledge lift gross margin toward 72%. |
| hiring pace | Customer success and operational support hires must be pulled about one quarter earlier without creating matching revenue yet. | Base case waits to add support roles until the active-account base justifies them. | Templated onboarding lets later support hires stay on the current schedule. |
Key assumptions (31)
| ID | Name | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Model start month | 2026-07 | YYYY-MM | [business-plan.yaml date] first full operating month after the 2026-06-25 plan date. |
| A2 | Opening cash after pre-seed close | 2600 | USDK | [business-plan.yaml fundingAsk.targetFundingRangeUsd; fundingAsk.runwayMonths] modeled at $2.6M, inside the stated $2-4M pre-seed range, to reach the Y2 milestone plus a 6-month buffer. |
| A3 | Revenue unit | Active paid health-system account | definition | [business-plan.yaml businessModel.unitOfValue] one paid academic-center account, whether a pre-season pilot or annual production site. |
| A4 | Paid pilot price | 60 | USDK/account-season | [business-plan.yaml gtm.pricing; investorMemo.firstCustomer.initialContract] midpoint of the stated $40K-$75K paid pre-season pilot band. |
| A5 | Annual production subscription price | 300 | USDK/account-year | [business-plan.yaml gtm.pricing; research.yaml market.som] matches the researched year-3 SOM math of 18 customers at roughly $300K ARR. |
| A6 | First production-year implementation fee | 20 | USDK/new production account | [business-plan.yaml businessModel.revenueStreams] startup-finance heuristic for protocol configuration and onboarding fees that sit below the core subscription value. |
| A7 | Manufacturer or benchmark module price | 60 | USDK/account-year | [business-plan.yaml businessModel.revenueStreams] startup-finance heuristic for a modest add-on reporting module rather than a second core product line. |
| A8 | Y1 month-end paid-pilot account path | 0,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,1,1,1 | accounts | [business-plan.yaml product.sixMonth; gtm.pricing; milestones 0-12 months] supports 2-3 paid pilots in the first year while production conversions start late in the season. |
| A9 | Y1 month-end production account path | 0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,2,3,3,3 | accounts | [business-plan.yaml product.twelveMonth; milestones 0-12 months] reaches 3 converted production sites by Y1 exit, with one additional active pilot still in flight. |
| A10 | Y2 quarter-end active account path | Q1Y2 5; Q2Y2 7; Q3Y2 10; Q4Y2 12 | accounts | [business-plan.yaml milestones 12-24 months] assumes the company expands early production accounts while adding new academic centers in a disciplined founder-led motion. |
| A11 | Y3 quarter-end active account path | Q1Y3 13; Q2Y3 15; Q3Y3 17; Q4Y3 18 | accounts | [business-plan.yaml milestones 24-36 months; research.yaml market.som] lands exactly on the researched year-3 18-customer SOM path. |
| A12 | Y3 manufacturer-module attach path | Q1Y3 1 account; Q2Y3 2; Q3Y3 3; Q4Y3 4 | accounts with add-on | [business-plan.yaml businessModel.revenueStreams; milestones 12-24 months] keeps add-on revenue modest and back-loaded until provider proof exists. |
| A13 | Gross margin target | 70 | percent | [business-plan.yaml businessModel.targetGrossMarginPct] modeled as 30% COGS against recognized revenue. |
| A14 | Monthly logo churn for unit economics | 1.2 | percent | [startup-finance heuristic: sticky healthcare enterprise workflow software] early customers are operationally embedded, but the product is still pre-scale. |
| A15 | CEO founder loaded cash compensation | 144 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml team CEO founder] startup-finance heuristic for a $120K founder salary plus payroll taxes and benefits. |
| A16 | Founding eng loaded cash compensation | 192 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml team Founding eng] startup-finance heuristic for a senior technical founder cash package plus payroll burden. |
| A17 | Product and implementation lead loaded cash compensation | 156 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml team Product and implementation lead] startup-finance heuristic for an early product-plus-delivery operator in healthcare workflow software. |
| A18 | Reimbursement and clinical operations lead loaded cash compensation | 168 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml team Reimbursement and clinical operations lead] startup-finance heuristic for a domain-heavy access and payer-operations hire. |
| A19 | Strategic account executive or partnerships lead loaded cash compensation | 180 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml team Strategic account executive or partnerships lead] startup-finance heuristic for the first enterprise seller added after a reference deployment exists. |
| A20 | Product engineer loaded cash compensation | 180 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml strategicChoices.sequencingRationale] startup-finance heuristic for the additional product depth needed once pilots begin converting. |
| A21 | Data/integration engineer loaded cash compensation | 180 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml product.twentyFourMonth; operations] startup-finance heuristic for deeper registry integration and benchmark data plumbing. |
| A22 | Implementation associate loaded cash compensation | 120 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml operations] startup-finance heuristic for a lower-cost execution hire that turns services-heavy onboarding into a repeatable playbook. |
| A23 | Account executive loaded cash compensation | 180 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml milestones 12-24 months] startup-finance heuristic for a dedicated seller once founder-led sales shows repeatability. |
| A24 | Customer success manager loaded cash compensation | 132 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml milestones 12-24 months] startup-finance heuristic for renewals and cross-protocol expansion support once the base passes 8-10 accounts. |
| A25 | Clinical workflow analyst loaded cash compensation | 132 | USDK/year | [business-plan.yaml whyWeWin; operations] startup-finance heuristic for maintaining reusable protocol and denial libraries as the account base expands. |
| A26 | RevOps and G&A manager loaded cash compensation | 144 | USDK/year | [startup-finance heuristic: healthcare enterprise SaaS] finance, contracting, and compliance load justify a dedicated operator before the Y3 year-end scale point. |
| A27 | Hiring cadence | CEO founder M1; Founding eng M1; Product and implementation lead M1; Reimbursement and clinical operations lead M4; Product engineer M6; Strategic account executive or partnerships lead M9; Data/integration engineer M10; Implementation associate M10; Account executive M15; Customer success manager M18; Clinical workflow analyst M28; RevOps and G&A manager M32 | timing | [business-plan.yaml team; strategicChoices.sequencingRationale] implementation and product hires land before scaled GTM and admin hires. |
| A28 | Functional payroll allocation | CEO 60% S&M / 40% G&A; Founding eng 100% R&D; Product and implementation lead 65% R&D / 35% G&A; Reimbursement and clinical operations lead 55% R&D / 45% G&A; Strategic account executive or partnerships lead 100% S&M; Product engineer 100% R&D; Data/integration engineer 100% R&D; Implementation associate 40% R&D / 60% G&A; Account executive 100% S&M; Customer success manager 30% S&M / 70% G&A; Clinical workflow analyst 70% R&D / 30% G&A; RevOps and G&A manager 100% G&A | allocation | [business-plan.yaml team rationales; operations] maps each hire to the function it primarily serves in the first 36 months. |
| A29 | Non-payroll operating spend | Y1 monthly S&M = 8 + 8% of revenue + 1.0 per active account; Y1 monthly R&D = 10 + 1.5 per active account; Y1 monthly G&A = 12 + 0.8 per active account; Y2 monthly S&M = 10 + 8% of revenue + 1.1 per active account; Y2 monthly R&D = 12 + 1.7 per active account; Y2 monthly G&A = 13 + 0.9 per active account; Y3 monthly S&M = 12 + 8% of revenue + 1.2 per active account; Y3 monthly R&D = 14 + 1.9 per active account; Y3 monthly G&A = 15 + 1.0 per active account | USDK/month | [startup-finance heuristic: HIPAA enterprise workflow software] covers cloud, compliance, travel, contracting, and legal/admin overhead while avoiding a vanity-low burn profile. |
| A30 | Cash conversion policy | EBITDA approximates operating cash movement | policy | [startup-finance heuristic] no debt, capex, taxes, or material working-capital swings are modeled at this stage. |
| A31 | Next financing milestone | 12 production sites, one adjacent RSV or COVID protocol live, and one manufacturer reporting agreement by Y2 exit | milestone | [business-plan.yaml milestones 12-24 months; fundingAsk.useOfFundsSummary] used to size the current round plus a 6-month buffer. |
flowchart LR Leads[Qualified academic centers] --> PaidPilots[Paid pre-season pilots] PaidPilots --> ProductionSites[Annual production subscriptions] ProductionSites --> Expansion[RSV or COVID protocol expansion] ProductionSites --> Revenue[Core subscription revenue] Expansion --> Revenue Revenue --> GrossProfit[70% gross profit] GrossProfit --> Cash[Cash and runway]
Flags: The base case assumes the flu beachhead does expand into adjacent RSV or COVID workflows; if that reuse fails, the 18-account Y3 path is too aggressive for a single-protocol wedge. · The 70% gross-margin target is only believable if payer-template reuse and implementation playbooks prevent services creep at each new site. · Cash stays healthy in the base case only because hiring remains disciplined and the pre-seed round closes before M1; a one-quarter sales slip likely forces a bridge.
Top risks
- Launch timing dependence. If long-acting flu antibodies are delayed clinically or commercially, the beachhead market may take longer to materialize than expected. Mitigation: Start with design partners that also manage RSV and other respiratory prophylaxis programs so the workflow engine can support adjacent launches before RQB01-scale products are widespread.
- Workflow integration fatigue. Transplant and oncology clinics may resist another seasonal tool unless it reduces workload immediately. Mitigation: Launch with lightweight registry imports, prebuilt authorization templates, and a services-assisted first season that proves time savings before deeper integrations.
- Payer-policy fragmentation. Coverage rules for new prophylactic antibodies may vary widely across payers and patient cohorts, slowing consistent adoption. Mitigation: Make payer rule logic configurable by site and use the first season to build a reusable knowledge base of authorization paths and denial reasons.
Evidence
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